Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 70091.192834 74117.379386 78148.510909 82484.424733 87013.256713 91600.979442 96596.642096
2025-04-13 62908.053297 69007.933474 75293.125687 82243.819822 89705.588080 97465.898384 106137.315226
2025-04-20 58718.318518 66299.378130 74288.066074 83314.291607 93209.412404 103707.128684 115666.108343
2025-04-27 55555.570733 64267.248737 73621.004604 84378.902081 96376.734452 109312.563287 124280.243520
2025-05-04 52667.983472 62247.444139 72704.118950 84918.549093 98745.237087 113861.724502 131586.963772
2025-05-11 49920.533559 60169.130348 71525.733822 84978.911923 100413.099971 117497.933322 137769.319709
2025-05-18 47637.330841 58463.725936 70627.254573 85221.894258 102169.922947 121141.554279 143891.216227
2025-05-25 45541.648831 56849.145732 69718.494703 85345.194156 103696.698768 124452.227291 149583.820486
2025-06-01 44203.801980 56042.695037 69676.531359 86411.363970 106264.317055 128926.654230 156606.141085
2025-06-08 42339.203611 54514.024664 68699.436864 86297.839382 107383.856672 131672.272772 161589.277415
2025-06-15 41369.578211 54013.383677 68900.941025 87547.590366 110088.547904 136262.089261 168742.701742
2025-06-22 40216.052187 53230.595161 68713.169118 88286.267165 112151.517437 140078.497692 174985.147478
2025-06-29 38775.349489 52051.998919 68014.192674 88386.437382 113444.526800 142998.893955 180209.078433
2025-07-06 37343.128798 50831.482839 67217.772179 88327.049575 114514.453145 145637.767778 185100.104424
2025-07-13 36602.707291 50454.038196 67439.849361 89505.250378 117088.688580 150095.200143 192207.749940
2025-07-20 35894.357186 50085.211404 67646.129393 90643.400261 119603.533944 154484.174351 199254.354709
2025-07-27 34972.617772 49403.429756 67425.181176 91217.505563 121399.216554 157987.903243 205229.430740
2025-08-03 33876.199634 48453.813770 66827.392596 91281.971236 122532.156690 160662.253965 210184.956849
2025-08-10 32923.736636 47661.018101 66401.484741 91539.565553 123889.359137 163605.627837 215478.283799
2025-08-17 31967.218557 46830.362206 65897.320573 91670.245520 125065.942994 166314.484764 220483.517470
2025-08-24 31474.390087 46606.006774 66171.134789 92799.934435 127517.448916 170629.914689 227522.357361
2025-08-31 30498.262786 45692.528144 65508.095413 92679.655520 128341.059453 172883.216908 231970.142246
2025-09-07 30141.636378 45616.235967 65946.966650 94003.682280 131036.515995 177520.742049 239458.284291